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 MK9 Retro Track Likelihood

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Rookie
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PostSubject: MK9 Retro Track Likelihood   MK9 Retro Track Likelihood Icon_minitime1Tue Jul 15, 2014 2:11 pm

Incredibly Likely (90%+)

N64 Wario Stadium

Highly Likely (70%)

GBA Rainbow Road

Very Likely (50%)

GCN Mushroom City
GCN Bowser's Castle
DS Figure 8 Circuit
DS Shroom Ridge
DS Mario Circuit

Likely (30%)

GCN Wario Colosseum

Decent Chance (25%)

SNES Mario Circuit 4
DS Bowser's Castle
Wii U Water Park
Wii U Sweet Sweet Canyon
Wii U Thwomp Ruins
Wii U Toad Harbor
Wii U Twisted Mansion
Wii U Shy Guy Falls
Wii U Sunshine Airport
Wii U Dolphin Shoals
Wii U Electrodrome
Wii U Cloudtop Cruise
Wii U Bone Dry Dunes

Unlikely (20%)

Wii Luigi Circuit
Wii Toad's Factory
Wii DK Summit
Wii Daisy Circuit
Wii Dry Dry Ruins
3DS Toad Circuit
3DS Daisy Hills
3DS Cheep Cheep Lagoon
3DS Shy Guy Bazaar
3DS Wuhu Loop
3DS Rock Rock Mountain
3DS Maka Wuhu
3DS Rosalina's Ice World
Wii U Mario Kart Stadium
Wii U Mario Circuit
Wii U Mount Wario

Very Unlikely (15%)

Wii Mario Circuit
3DS Mario Circuit
3DS Wario Shipyard

Borderline Incredibly Unlikely (7-10%)

SNES Ghost Valley 1
SNES Bowser Castle 1
SNES Choco Island 1
SNES Bowser Castle 2
SNES Koopa Beach 1
SNES Vanilla Lake 1
SNES Bowser Castle 3
SNES Ghost Valley 3
SNES Vanilla Lake 2
GBA Riverside Park
GBA Boo Lake
GBA Cheep Cheep Island
GBA Sunset Wilds
GBA Snow Land
GBA Yoshi Desert
GBA Bowser Castle 4
GCN Rainbow Road
DS Rainbow Road
Wii Moonview Highway
Wii Bowser's Castle
3DS Bowser's Castle
Wii U Bowser's Castle

Incredibly Unlikely (<5%)

SNES Donut Plains 2
GBA Cheese Land
GBA Ribbon Road
GBA Lakeside Park
GBA Broken Pier
Wii Wario's Gold Mine
Wii Rainbow Road
3DS Neo Bowser City
3DS Rainbow Road
Wii U Rainbow Road

* updated CL, RiR, WGM, & NBC to very unlikely since we do not know what Nintendo plans to do with tracks that returned as DLC yet. * - 12/14/15

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqb1TpzwCRU

Q/A

Q: Why don't any SNES tracks have a high chance? Same with Wii, 3DS, and Wii U too!
A: It's because there's a lot of tracks left for those, and there's only so many spots to fill. There's 11 possible SNES tracks now, but it's likely that only 1 of them will get picked, and each individual track has no more of a chance than the other.
Q: In your video you chose Dry Dry Ruins over Cloudtop Cruise, but here you say Cloudtop Cruise is more likely. I've noticed this with other tracks too!
A: Cloudtop Cruise is more likely, but because in my video I'm trying to get 100% of them right, I have to include Wii tracks at some point, even though Wii U tracks actually have a larger shot right now.
Q: How confident are you about your rankings on this thread?
A: Pretty confident. The video I was forced to take guesses, whereas here I didn't have to take any risks. So I would say this thread is probably going to be close to correct when the time comes.


Last edited by Rookie on Fri Apr 15, 2016 12:31 am; edited 2 times in total
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Ph1r3
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PostSubject: Re: MK9 Retro Track Likelihood   MK9 Retro Track Likelihood Icon_minitime1Thu Jul 24, 2014 10:13 pm

hi
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