MK8 Retro Track Predictions

So I decided to create a serious retro track prediction thread for MK8, based on what could be logical options for possible retro tracks remaining.

Looking at previous patterns,

MKDS had

- 5 Circuits (MC1, PC, GCN LC, GBA LC, YC)
- 2 Meadow/Farm/Plains type tracks (MMF, DP1)
- 1 Snow/Ice track (FS)
- 1 BC (BC2)
- 1 Beach track (KB2)
- 1 Mountain track (CM)
- 1 Traffic/Town track (MB)
- 1 Desert Track (CI2)
- 1 Sky Themed Track (SG)
- 1 Ghost Themed track (BB)
- 1 Miscellaneous (BP)

MKW had

- 2 Beach (PB, SGB)
- 2 Jungle (YF, DKJP)
- 1 Ghost (GV2)
- 3 Circuits (MR, GCN MC, MC3)
- 1 Snow/Ice (SL)
- 1 Traffic/Town (DS)
- 1 Stadium (WS)
- 1 Desert (DH)
- 2 BCs (BC3, 64BC)
- 1 Meadow/Nature (PG)
- 1 Mountain (DKM)

and MK7 had

- 2 Circuits (LR, MC2)
- 1 BC (BC1)
- 1 Sky (MG)
- 1 Ghost (LM)
- 2 Beach/Water (KB/KC)
- 1 Stadium / Misc. (WP)
- 1 Desert (KD)
- 1 Snow/Ice (DKP)
- 1 Meadow/Nature (MT)
- 1 RR (SNES RR)
- 1 Jungle (DDJ)
- 3 Misc. (CM/DC/AF)

Some notes:

- It's likely that if 2 BCs occur, it's a numbered one + a more "3D/nonflat" one
- put rWP as stadium because its wario/waluigi with shared theme as a stadium.
- Grumble Volcano goes under 'lava' which I'll associate with BCs as 'lava tracks' here out.

Looking at the patterns it seems that no more than 2 of particular types if tracks will occur, excluding Circuits because they're kind of the main tracks most likely. The types of tracks with 2 retros in a game usually can be argued to be only 1 of that type, for example: Koopa Beach can be argued to be a beach and Koopa Cape to be a different category because no sand.Yoshi Falls can also be argued to not be all that "jungley" as well. The reason behind MK7 only having 2 circuits could also be because of the inclusion of rRR too. Based on the patterns I would say it'd be fair to expect:

- 1 Snow/Ice Track
- 1 Desert Track
- 1-2 Beach/Water Tracks
- 1 Traffic Track
- 2 Lava
- 1 Stadium Track
- 1 Jungle
- 1 Meadow/Nature
- 1 Mountain
- 1 Ghost
-  2-3 Circuits
-  2 Miscellaneous/Abstract

1 Desert & 1 Ice track have seemed to be a staple so far, so I'll just assume that's a trend we can expect. Beach/Other water tracks seem a bit common so I put 1-2, and as I had a missing spot I though the inclusion of 2 BCs (like the console predecessor) would be likely, especially since there's a handful of numbered BCs and 3D BCs remaining.

Moving on, it's a pattern for the last MK installment to have 4 remaining tracks it seems, so I'll assume there's 4 MK7 tracks. I don't think MKW will get 4 for 2 reasons. 1 being the % of games getting 4 retros is getting lower and lower (100% (4) MKDS, 60% (3) MKW, 33% (2) MK7), and 2 being there is even more games to include retro tracks for now than MK7. So I'll predict MKW to have 3 returning tracks, leaving 9 for the other 5. It would be likely to see 2 tracks from 4 games and 1 track from 1 game, and seeing as SNES & GBA seem to have been picked on in the recent ones, I'll guess SNES to be the one who gets 1 since GBA did in MK7. This gives:

- 4 3DS
- 3 Wii
- 2 DS
- 2 GCN
- 2 GBA
- 2 N64
- 1 SNES

Next thing to consider is confirmed tracks. Dry Dry Desert takes the cake for our desert track and as 1 of the GCN tracks. Being the 1 desert track, this elimates: SNES CI1, GBA YD, Wii DDR, & 3DS SGB. Another thing is I'll start rating tracks by difficulty, with easy (shell/banana), medium (banana/leaf), and hard (leaf/lightning). DDD gets an easy from me. I'll assume there to be 5 Easy, 6 Medium, and 5 Hard, since medium will most likely have the most flexibility in what cups the track could be placed in. Another note is that many more mushroom cup tracks have been selected than special in the past, so it would be likely to see some more difficult ones in general returning. Music Park fits in miscellaneous/abstract, but I have one more spot for that category left. Piranha Plant Slide is the last confirmed track, which fits both in nature and beach/water, but as I have 1-2 Beach/Water and only 1 Meadow, I'll fit it into the water category. I'll give MP medium difficulty, and PPS medium as well since I'm expecting some more difficult tracks returning. This leaves:

- 1 Snow/Ice Track
- 1 Beach Track
- 1 Traffic Track
- 2 Lava
- 1 Stadium Track
- 1 Jungle
- 1 Meadow/Nature
- 1 Mountain
- 1 Ghost
-  2 Circuits
-  1 Miscellaneous/Abstract

- 2 3DS
- 3 Wii
- 2 DS
- 1 GCN
- 2 GBA
- 2 N64
- 1 SNES

Next thing I'll point out is that I'm predicting 2 BCs, like the console predecssor. I'm kind of doubting Rainbow Roads too, so on probability list I'll probably list them as possible or unlikely. So let's look at the numbered ones. It's been quite a pattern for a GBA BC to appear. If a SNES BC appeared that would also disrupt the SNES MC pattern as well, so I'm just going to assume we'll see GBA BC4 and SNES MC4 in MK8, and hope for future MKs we don't ever have to deal with those 2 types of tracks ever again. MC4 is also pretty likely because believe it or not there aren't many other diverse circuit options remaining as well (blame MKDS). I'll give MC4 medium (same reasoning as PPS) and BC4 difficult. So this leaves:

- 1 Snow/Ice Track
- 1 Beach Track
- 1 Traffic Track
- 1 Lava
- 1 Stadium Track
- 1 Jungle
- 1 Meadow/Nature
- 1 Mountain
- 1 Ghost
-  1 Circuit
-  1 Miscellaneous/Abstract

- 2 3DS
- 3 Wii
- 2 DS
- 1 GCN
- 1 GBA
- 2 N64

- 4 Easy
- 3 Medium
- 4 Hard

With the exclusion of SNES tracks now (MC4) is my line track, the only ghost tracks are GBA Boo Lake and GBA Broken Pier. Not really sure which to pick now, but that will finish off the GBA tracks. On to ice tracks. Since the Ice/Desert tracks have never been from the same console, I'll eliminate GCN Sherbet Land as DDD was a GCN track too.nGBA/SNES are gone, so no Snow Land / Vanilla Lakes, and DK Pass/Sherbet Land 64/Frappe Snowland are all gone. This leaves Wii DK Summit and 3DS Rosalina's Ice World. I'll come back to this choice as well. Beach tracks. I've eliminated SNES/GBA, and considering the already used ones, this leaves only DS Cheep Cheep Beach, and 3DS Cheep Cheep Lagoon. Going on to traffic now. What is left in the end is quite a bit actually, so it's possible 2 could be selected. We come up with N64 Toad's Turnpike, GCN Mushroom City, DS Shroom Ridge, Wii Moonview Highway, and 3DS Wuhu Loop (somewhat), so a lot of options there. For stadium tracks, the possibilities are now N64 Wario Stadium, GCN Wario Colosseum, or DS Wario Stadium. For Jungle, we have surprisingly just DK Jungle remaining, and jungle/forest tracks are somewhat of a staple for a MK game. So finally we can get down to 1 3DS track. DK Jungle was in the special cup so I'll place it as hard. For Meadow/Nature, it can be narrowed down to Yoshi Valley, Moo Moo Meadows & Daisy Hills. Rock Rock Mountain seems to be the only mountain track left really, but as there's only 1 3DS track spot left and there are a lot of 3DS tracks mentioned and on top of that in the trailer there was a mountain-ruins type track already I'll probably change my mountain track to another miscellaneous track since there's a few of those to choose from left.
Rock Rock Mountain would also most likely force Music Park into the shell cup which I doubt.

What's needed now:

- DKS / RIW
- CCB / CCL
- TTP / MuC / SR / MH / WL
- GCN BC / DS BC / Wii BC / 3DS BC
- 64WS / GCN WC / DSWS
- YV / MMM / DH
- BL / BP
- 1 Circuit
- 2 Misc

- 4 Easy
- 3 Medium
- 3 Hard

- 1 3DS
- 3 Wii
- 2 DS
- 1 GCN
- 2 N64

Now back to DK Summit vs Rosalina's Ice World. There are quite a few other possible 3DS tracks left, and not many 'hard' track spots left as well. With DKJ, PPS, and MP, RIW being added would force MP into the shell cup which seems unlikely, so I'll select DK Summit to make it. DK Summit gets medium difficulty.

Thinking of easier tracks to put into the shell cup, on the list DDD would be obvious but the only other ones would be MMM/DH, and CCB/CCL. A circuit track in the shell cup also seems to be a staple too and with MC4 already in it would need to be an easy circuit which is a cross between Figure 8 Circuit, Luigi Circuit (Wii), and Toad Circuit. Since 2 tracks originating from the same game in one cup has nit yet hapoened, this would cause one of the following combinations: F8C / MMM / CCL, LC  / DH / CCB, or TC / MMM / CCB. Toad's Factory almost seemed to be a guaranteed return track, it almost seemed perfect actually, but looking at this it seems TF will probably not return because of LC or MMM seeming more necessary for the shell cup and the less popular GCN DDD will probably take the last spot of the shell cup. Since DH/MMM is needed in the shell cup this causes YV to be somewhat thought of as eliminated however I won't deny it yet since it could also be considered a mountain track, and as a very popular miscellaneous track (TF) seems unlikely now I'll consider YV as a possible mountain/misc track now. With TC/DH/CCL almost necessary to return this also takes Wuhu Loop and 3DS Bowser's Castle out of the mix now because essentially 4 3DS slots have been taken. A DS & Wii track seem to need a slot in the shell cup too, so what's left is now is:

- 1 Wii
- 1 DS
- 1 GCN
- 2 N64

- DH/MMM
- CCL/CCB
- F8C/LC/TC
- GCN BC / DS BC / Wii BC
- TTP / MuC / SR / MH
- 64WS / WC / DSWS
- BL / BP

Tracks I've Predicted now

- DDD
- MP
- PPS
- BC4
- MC4
- DKJ
- DKS
- DH/MM
- CCL/CCB
- F8C/LC/TC
- A 3D BC

And if you're wondering about 2 DK tracks, MKDS had 2 LCs, MK7 had 2 Luigi, Daisy, and Koopa retro tracks, and MKW had 2 DK tracks, 2 Peach tracks and 3 Mario Circuits so ya I think it's easily possible. To out these into cups:

Shell

DS Figure 8 Circuit / Wii Luigi Circuit / 3DS Toad Circuit
Wii Moo Moo Meadows / 3DS Daisy Hills
DS Cheep Cheep Beach / 3DS Cheep Cheep Lagoon
GCN Dry Dry Desert

- ??
- ??
- Wii DK Summit
- 3DS Music Park

- 3DS Pirahna Plant Slide
- GBA Bowser Castle 4
-  ??
- SNES Mario Circuit 4

- 3DS DK Jungle
- ??
- ??
- GCN/DS/Wii BC

To fill out the remaining spots some decisions need to be made, these being BL/BP, 64WS/WC/DSWS, and TTP/MuC/SR/MH. Remaining likely tracks include at this point

- N64 Royal Raceway (no real limit on circuits, they could replace a misc gimmicky track)
- N64 Yoshi Valley
- DS Tick Tock Clock
- DS Mario Circuit
- Wii Wario's Gold Mine
- Wii Daisy Circuit

2 of these 6 could fill remaining spots.

Anyway there are 2 spots left in the banana cup, and tracks left that would seem to fit there would be GBA Boo Lake, DS Shroom Ridge and N64 Toad's Turnpike. Since 2 traffic courses wouldn't really work in a cup this pretty much locks GBA Boo Lake in, eliminating GBA Broken Pier. Essentially the choice between TTP and SR will affect the rest of the outcome, both seem very likely as they both would offer a lot of antigravity spots it seems. However with needing 1 of these 2, it knocks out Wii Moonview Highway and GCN Mushroom City. This means either GCN WC or GCN BC is in now.

The predicted banana cup is now:

N64 Toad's Turnpike / DS Shroom Ridge
GBA Boo Lake
Wii DK Summit
3DS Music Park


At this point it's very hard to keep making predictions based off elimination, so I'm going for an educated guess. Really Music Park seems like the only really gimmicky/miscellaneous track, and a 2nd track that would fit quite well with that theme (which also seems to be a fan favorite) is DS Tick Tock Clock. Choosing TTC's placement is difficult atm, so by elimation it eliminates Shroom Ridge, DS Wario Stadium, and DS Bowser's Castle. This makes an option of GCN BC vs Wii BC, and as GCN Wario Colosseum is still possible and no other Wii tracks could foot the lightning cup AND because I don't find DC/WGM to really fit the leaf cup spot too well, I will guess Wii BC to make it as well GCN WC, which eliminates N64 Wario Stadium. Also this locks in Toad's Turnpike To be honest I think GCN WC would be better as the 3rd track of the cup instead of 2nd as well, but that could just be me. This is what I'm at now for leaf and lightning cups:

3DS Piranha Plant Slide
GBA Bowser Castle 4
-
SNES Mario Circuit 4

3DS DK Jungle
-
GCN Wario Colosseum
Wii Bowser's Castle

Making the final choice: Do I choose RRy or YV? In the end both are pretty popular, but I think it would be better to choose RRy. 2 circuits in a row simply feels more legit (like PC & GCN LC in mkds) than a jungle + valley, idk why. Also YV would be the 2nd nature/meadow track too, and TTC gets made the 2nd track of a cup this way like in MKDS.

Now the final final decision goes back to the shell cup. F8C/MMM/CCL, LC/DH/CCB, or TC/MMM/CCB? After a little thought I realized it's Mario Kart 8, and they have a new simple track based off a Möbius Strip which looks like an 8, hence the title of the game.....so why not have a retro the same way? So I would think Figure 8 Circuit would prevail here, not to mention that all 3 of the Luigi Circuit predecessors have all came back on a handheld game so far. So my final prediction list is:

DS Figure 8 Circuit
Wii Moo Moo Meadows
3DS Cheep Cheep Lagoon
GCN Dry Dry Desert

N64 Toad's Turnpike
GBA Boo Lake
Wii DK Summit
3DS Music Park

3DS Piranha Plant Slide
GBA Bowser Castle 4
N64 Royal Raceway
SNES Mario Circuit 4

3DS DK Jungle
DS Tick Tock Clock
GCN Wario Colosseum
Wii Bowser's Castle

And for my guesses on tracks likely to return:

Confirmed

GCN Dry Dry Desert
3DS Music Park
3DS Piranha Plant Slide

Very Likely

- SNES Mario Circuit 4
- N64 Toad's Turnpike
- N64 Royal Raceway
- N64 Yoshi Valley
- GBA Bowser Castle 4
- GCN Wario Colosseum
- GCN Bowser's Castle
- DS Figure 8 Circuit
- DS Cheep Cheep Beach
- DS Tick Tock Clock
- Wii Moo Moo Meadows
- Wii DK Summit
- Wii Bowser's Castle
- 3DS Cheep Cheep Lagoon
- 3DS DK Jungle

Likely

- N64 Wario Stadium
- GBA Boo Lake
- GBA Broken Pier
- GCN Sherbet Land
- DS Shroom Ridge
- DS Mario Circuit
- DS Wario Stadium
- Wii Luigi Circuit
- Wii Wario's Gold Mine
- Wii Daisy Circuit
- 3DS Toad Circuit
- 3DS Daisy Hills
- 3DS Rosalina's Ice World

Very Possible

- SNES Ghost Valley 1
- SNES Ghost Valley 3
- N64 Rainbow Road
- GCN Mushroom City
- DS Bowser's Castle
- DS Rainbow Road
- Wii Toad's Factory
- Wii Grumble Volcano
- Wii Moonview Highway
- 3DS Wuhu Loop
- 3DS Bowser's Castle

Unlikely

- SNES Donut Plains 2
- SNES Donut Plains 3
- SNES Bowser Castle 1
- SNES Bowser Castle 2
- SNES Bowser Castle 3
- SNES Koopa Beach 1
- GBA Riverside Park
- GBA Mario Circuit
- GBA Cheese Land
- GBA Cheep Cheep Island
- GBA Sunset Wilds
- GBA Ribbon Road
- GBA Lakeside Park
- GBA Rainbow Road
- GCN Rainbow Road
- Wii Mario Circuit
- Wii Rainbow Road
- 3DS Mario Circuit
- 3DS Rock Rock Mountain
- 3DS Wario Shipyard
- 3DS Neo Bowser City
- 3DS Maka Wuhu
- 3DS Rainbow Road

Very Unlikely

- SNES Choco Island 1
- SNES Vanilla Lake 1
- SNES Vanilla Lake 2
- GBA Snowland
- GBA Yoshi Desert
- Wii Dry Dry Ruins
- 3DS Shy Guy Bazaar

Rookie.
















You have too much time on your hands

>summer
>inactive month for wars

tl;dr

good read 10/10

DS Bowser Castle will back with a glider part over the moving platforms.
Just wait it'll happen

5/7 now

Was considering grumble volcano so it prob won't be Wii BC either now

GBA MC over MC4 was unexpected though, but I'm in favor of it

News update with predictions. Based on 16 tracks assumed and the 7 confirmed:


GBA Mario Circuit
GCN Dry Dry Desert
DS Tick Tock Clock
Wii Grumble Volcano
3DS Music Park
3DS Piranha Plant Slide
3DS DK Jungle

- Desert track has been selected
- Non BC lava track
- 2 "gimmicky" tracks (MP/TTC)
- Jungle track
- a circuit, could be more

3DS now has 3/4 tracks confirmed - likely MP in banana, PPS I'm Leaf, DKJ in Lightning.

As I'm doubting TC with GBA ,MC announced, and doubting SGB cuz of DDD, it comes down to DH/CCL. So 3DS predictions:

- DH / CCL
- MP
- PPS
- DKJ

At this point I'll predict retros by console:

1 / 2 / 1 / 2 / 3 / 3 / 4

Going to list out remaining tracks for N64 / GCN / DS / Wii now.

N64 - Select 2

- Toad's Turnpike
- Wario Stadium
- Royal Raceway
- Yoshi Valley
- Rainbow Road

GCN - Select 1

- Sherbet Land
- Mushroom City
- Wario Colosseum
- Bowser's Castle
- Rainbow Road

DS - Select 2

- Figure 8 Circuit
- Cheep Cheep Beach
- Shroom Ridge
- Mario Circuit
- Wario Stadium
- Bowser's Castle
- Rainbow Road

Wii - Select 2

- Luigi Circuit
- Moo Moo Meadows
- Toad's Factory
- Mario Circuit
- DK Summit
- Wario's Gold Mine
- Daisy Circuit
- Dry Dry Ruins
- Moonview Highway
- Bowser's Castle
- Rainbow Road

Track Placements Predictions Thus Far:

Note TTC is confirmed for Lightning Cup

- GBA MC
- DH (?)
- CCL (?)
- DDD

-
-
-
- MP

- PPS
-
-
-

- DKJ
- TTC
- GV
-

GV follows a pattern of Star Cup Finales returning two games later as 3rd track in lightning cup (DKM, AF)
GBA MC will prob be only GBA track.
Guessing GBA MC to open the Shell Cup since I think MC4 will return and I don't think they'll use many retro circuits.

Assuming GV to be in lightning this rules out Wii BC / Wii RR, and DDR is another desert track, and MH has many other traffic alternatives (TTP/MuC/SR). So gonna eliminate all of the Wii Special Cup this time around, though MH could be seen in the Leaf Cup, considering GV seems harder anyway. TTC confirmed in Lightning makes DS BC / DS RR very unlikely too.

rWC seems like an unlikely final track / Leaf Cup track, and GCN BC / RR seem more likely.

Traffic Track: TTP / MuC / SR
Snow: SL / DKS

Considering there are many more options for 1 GCN track I'll guess DKS once again.

New guesses: MC4 / DKS

Remaining:

- TTP
- WS
- RRy
- YV
- RRd
- MuC
- BC
- RR
- CCB
- SR
- WS
- MMM
- TF
- WGM
- DC

Shell
-  GBA Mario Circuit
- Wii Moo Moo Meadows / 3DS Daisy Hills
- DS Cheep Cheep Beach / 3DS Cheep Cheep Lagoon
- GCN Dry Dry Desert

Lightning

- 3DS DK Jungle
- DS Tick Tock Clock
- Wii Grumble Volcano
- N64 Rainbow Road / GCN Bowser's Castle / GCN Rainbow Road

Remaining Confirmed / Guesses: MC4 (L) / DKS (B/L) / MP (B) / PPS (L)

2 of 3 DS tracks on the list I guess will be picked which seems unlikely

So I will predict 4 Wii tracks rather than 3 DS, to keep a trend from having last 2 games having 4. This supports MMM / CCL, which also eliminates DH / CCB.

Predicted Shell

- GBA Mario Circuit
- Wii Moo Moo Meadows
- 3DS Cheep Cheep Lagoon
- GCN Dry Dry Desert

SNES [1/1]
N64 [0/2]
GBA [1/1]
GCN [1/2]
DS [1/2]
Wii [3/4]
3DS [4/4]

This leaves 2 of

TTP / WS / RRy / YV / RR

1 of MuC / BC / RR

1 of SR / WS

This means that the traffic track pretty much must be TTP / SR. Meaning no Mushroom City, meaning GCN will be BC / RR, meaning no N64 RR, so it makes WS /  RRy likely and not VY.  I think RRy will get in because of popularity, meaning WS is a no which would point to making FS WS getting picked, making SR a no, and TTP  a yes. That finishes 64 & DS, and GCN is BC / RR, and DC seems likely remaining but in order to nor have 3 'circuits' in one cup and DKS even seems more difficult than DKS, so I think they'll swap. This leaves GCN / BC and GCN RR. I feel like RR is a bit cliche after SNES RR in MK7, but looking back we have no BCs, not even GBA or SNES. So I'll go with GCN BC. Personally I kind of think now that SNES won't be MC4, and there's no real Beach track, so I'll just change to KB1 (just a hunch). No GBA BC and no SNES MC I feel.

Final Guesses

GBA Mario Circuit
Wii Moo Moo Meadows
3DS Cheep Cheep Lagoon
GCN Dry Dry Desert

N64 Toad's Turnpike
SNES Koopa Beach 1
Wii Daisy Circuit
3DS Music Park

3DS Piranha Plant Slide
Wii DK Summit
DS Wario Stadium
N64 Royal Raceway

3DS DK Jungle
DS Tick Tock Clock
Wii Grumble Volcano
GCN Bowser's Castle

Likeliness - If tracks weren't influenced by anything than what's already confirmed, because some of my assumptions may not be completely accurate.

Incredibly Likely / Confirmed

GBA Mario Circuit
GCN Dry Dry Desert
DS Tick Tock Clock
Wii Grumble Volcano
3DS Music Park
3DS Piranha Plant Slide
3DS DK Jungle

Highly Likely

DS Cheep Cheep Beach
Wii Moo Moo Meadows
Wii DK Summit
3DS Daisy Hills
3DS Cheep Lagoon

Likely

SNES Mario Circuit 4
N64 Toad's Turnpike
N64 Royal Raceway
GBA Bowser Castle 4
GCN Bowser's Castle
Wii Daisy Circuit


Decent Chance

N64 Rainbow Road
GCN Sherbet Land
GCN Mushroom City
GCN Rainbow Road
DS Figure 8 Circuit
DS Shroom Ridge
DS Wario Stadium

Unlikely

N64 Wario Stadium
GCN Wario Colosseum
DS Mario Circuit
Wii Luigi Circuit
Wii Wario's Gold Mine
3DS Toad Circuit
3DS Shy Guy Bazaar


Highly Unlikely

Every SNES track other than MC4
Every GBA track other than BC4
N64 Yoshi Valley
Wii Moonview Highway
3DS Wuhu Loop
Wii Toad's Factory
Wii Mario Circuit

Incredibly Unlikely

DS Bower's Castle
DS Rainbow Road
Wii Dry Dry Ruins
Wii Bowser's Castle
Wii Rainbow Road
3DS Mario Circuit
3DS Rock Rock Mountain
3DS Wario Shipyard
3DS Neo Bowser City
3DS Maka Wuhu
3DS Rosalina's Ice World
3DS Bowser's Castle
3DS Rainbow Road

>yfw wario colosseum

also WHY? just WHY?

ihopeusukatmk8

itoi6: my cock is radiating a bursting aura

This isn't based on what I want Phire

It's just what I think based on the info we've been given

original prediction 8/15
second prediction 10/15

new retro tracks so doing it again

however only 1 spot remains with the SL / YV Sunshine Airport catch, so placement and final track will be main guesses. This post will probably be shorter.

As of now we have

1 SNES
4 N64
1 GBA
2 GCN
2 DS
2 Wii
3 3DS

let's start eliminating then.

4 N64 tracks are used so we can rule out N64 Wario Stadium.
Shell cup has no 3DS tracks so the rest of the 3DS tracks are ruled out.

the last track will be in the leaf/lightning. so it'll be a more difficult track probably.

Predicting this so far for Leaf/Lightning

Leaf

- GCN Sherbet Land
- N64 Yoshi Valley
- 3DS Music Park

Lightning CUp

- 3DS Piranha Plant Slide
- DS Tick Tock Clock
- Wii Grumble Volcano
- N64 Rainbow Road

really it all comes down to where Grumble Volcano is placed. Based off of past patterns I'll go with 3rd in lightning cup.

Highly unlikely tracks are easier tracks. Also we wont be seeing another Rainbow Road. I really don't see another SNES or GBA track I will rule out the following: - SNES tracks, - 64WS -GBA tracks, GCN RR, F8C, DS RR, Wii LC, Wii MC, Wii RR, 3DS Tracks. So what's left is:

- GCN Mushroom City
- GCN Wario Colosseum
- GCN Bowser's Castle
- DS Shroom Ridge
- DS Mario Circuit
- DS Wario Stadium
- DS Bowser's Castle
- Wii Toad's Factory
- Wii DK Summit
- Wii Wario's Gold Mine
- Wii Daisy Circuit
- Wii Dry Dry Ruins
- Wii Moonview Highway
- Wii Bowser's Castle

Toad's Turnpike is the obvious traffic track, GCN Sherbet Land is the ice track, GCN DDD is the desert track. Let's eliminate all those track styles.

- GCN Wario Colosseum
- GCN Bowser's Castle
- DS Mario Circuit
- DS Wario Stadium
- DS Bowser's Castle
- Wii Toad's Factory
- Wii Wario's Gold Mine
- Wii Daisy Circuit
- Wii Bowser's Castle

This is really where it all comes down to GV's placement. I feel like the Wii will get 3 because it's simply more recent. Then again no BC retro is strange. There's also been no Wario track confirmed. WGM simply feels like it to me. Looking at the rest though there's been some strange track placements, like RRy in banana, TTP in shell, and DKJ in the lightning cup, but that seems kinda random. It's really hard to decide but I think they would save their last reveal for something like a BC. So I'll move Grumble to the Leaf.

Wii Moo Moo Meadows
DS Cheep Cheep Beach
GBA Mario Circuit
N64 Toad's Turnpike

GCN Dry Dry Desert
SNES Donut Plains 3
N64 Royal Raceway
3DS DK Jungle

GCN Sherbet Land
N64 Yoshi Valley
3DS Music Park
Wii Grumble Volcano

3DS Piranha Plant Slide
DS Tick Tock Clock
GCN Bowser's Castle
N64 Rainbow Road

Likeliness Chart

Incredibly Likely / Confirmed

SNES Donut Plains 3
N64 Toad's Turnpike
N64 Royal Raceway
N64 Rainbow Road
GBA Mario Circuit
GCN Dry Dry Desert
DS Cheep Cheep Beach
DS Tick Tock Clock
Wii Moo Moo Meadows
Wii Grumble Volcano
3DS Music Park
3DS Piranha Plant Slide
3DS DK Jungle

Very Likely

N64 Yoshi Valley
GCN Sherbet Land

Likely

None.

Decent Chance

GCN Wario Colosseum
GCN Bowser's Castle
DS Mario Circuit
DS Wario Stadium
DS Bowser's Castle
Wii Wario's Gold Mine
Wii Daisy Circuit
Wii Bowser's Castle

Unlikely

Wii Toad's Factory

Very Unlikely

SNES Mario Circuit 4
SNES Ghost Valley 3
SNES Bowser Castle 2
SNES Bowser Castle 3
SNES Vanilla Lake 2
GBA Ribbon Road
GBA Lakeside Park
GBA Broken Pier
GBA Bowser Castle 4
GCN Mushroom City
DS Shroom Ridge
Wii DK Summit
Wii Moonview Highway

Incredibly Unlikely / Practically Deconfirmed

SNES Donut Plains 2
SNES Ghost Valley 1
SNES Bowser Castle 1
SNES Choco Island 1
SNES Koopa Beach 1
SNES Vanilla Lake 1
N64 Wario Stadium
GBA Riverside Park
GBA Boo Lake
GBA Cheese Land
GBA Cheep Cheep Island
GBA Sunset Wilds
GBA Snow Land
GBA Yoshi Desert
GBA Rainbow Road
GCN Rainbow Road
DS Figure 8 Circuit
DS Rainbow Road
Wii Luigi Circuit
Wii Mario Circuit
Wii Dry Dry Ruins
Wii Rainbow Road
3DS Toad Circuit
3DS Daisy Hills
3DS Cheep Cheep Lagoon
3DS Shy Guy Bazaar
3DS Wuhu Loop
3DS Mario Circuit
3DS Rock Rock Mountain
3DS Wario Shipyard
3DS Neo Bowser City
3DS Maka Wuhu
3DS Rosalina's Ice World
3DS Bowser's Castle
3DS Rainbow Road